Many fans are under the impression that we are entering the final saga which they expect to be as long as if not longer than the Yonko saga which began in Punk Hazard/Zou. They are under the impression that One Piece has 250-400 chapters left and it will go on for 7-10 years at least. Most fans dismissed Oda’s 5 year claim by saying that he says the same thing again and again. But this is simply not the case.
In 2014 he said that One Piece would go on for 10 more years (2024). In 2019 he said that One Piece would end in 5 years (2024). Also, in 2020 he said that One Piece would end in 2024-2025.
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Oda has also given us percentage estimates: 50% for the timeskip (597-600); 60% at the end of Punk Hazard (Ch 699-700); 70% at the beginning of Whole Cake Island (65% was a misconception that got clarified in the same week.) (Ch 832); 80% at the beginning of Wano (Ch 912).
Wano is the longest arc so far. It should advance the story by at least 10% if not more meaning that One Piece is at least 90% done.
Notice that almost each stretch of 10% seems to indicate 100+ manga chapters and:
– Return to Sabaody (5) + Fishman Island (51) + Punk Hazard (46) = 102 Chapters.
– Dressrosa = 102 Chapters.
– Zou (23) + Whole Cake Island (78) = 101 Chapters.
– Reverie (6) + Wano (145) = 151 Chapters.
The average length for the last stretch would be 118 chapters. If you calculate chapters based on percentages and go with the pace of 36 chapters per year then:
– If timeskip is 50% then One Piece has 1194-1200 Chapters (End Date 2026).
– If Punk Hazard is 60% then One Piece has 1166 Chapters (End Date 2025).
– If Dressrosa is 70% then One Piece has 1188 Chapters (End Date 2026).
– If Tottoland is 80% then One Piece has 1140 Chapters (End Date 2024).
– If Wano is 90% then One Piece has 1170 Chapters (End Date 2025).
On average One Piece will end in 2025 with around 1170 Chapters. The final part will be around 120 chapters. This is not strict and I find 150 chapters more likely for the final part with 1200 chapters in total making more sense with 60 volumes pre timeskip and 60 volumes post timeskip. 600 chapters for pre timeskip and 600 post timeskip. Chapter 600 is called Romance Dawn to the New World.
There’s only 3 major arcs: Elbalf, Laughtale and Mary Geoise/New Marineford.
If the final war is twice as long as Marineford then we get around 60 Chapters. Elbalf can be a set up arc as long as Zou which is around 20 Chapters. Many people want to see a Davy Back fight between Shanks and Luffy. The first Davy Back Fight in Long Ring Long Land was only 19 chapters.
The remaining chapters go into the Laughtale arc which is where Luffy and Blackbeard might clash. 40 Chapters is more than enough since Marineford was around 30 chapters and the remaining 10 chapters can be used for flashback/lore and set up.
As for Lodestar, Hachinosu, God Valley, Sphinx these could simply be around 3-6 chapters similar to Reverse Mountain/ Loguetown/ Reverie/ Return to Sabaody. As for every single minor character we can simply get cover stories.
The end of Thriller Bark to timeskip was a little over 100 chapters. If Oda wants to, the story will pick up pace. The final part will be fast paced like summit war saga.
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